Maryland vs Purdue
Maryland visit Purdue in Week 10. The model favors Purdue by 4.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ gives Purdue a narrow edge, rating the Boilermakers 0.2 (69th) against Maryland's -2.1 (81st), and projects Purdue by 4.7 with a 61% win probability. The market prices the gap wider: a consensus line of Purdue -6, a total of 57, and an implied 64%, while the ProphetX exchange sits at Purdue -205 for 67%. The 4.7-point projection landing under a six-point line marks the clearest model-versus-market disagreement here, with Maryland available at +200 against a 39% model number.
The unit ranks explain the lean and its fragility. Purdue's offense (#46) outranks Maryland's (#70), but its defense (#101) is the weakest group on the board, behind Maryland's #89. That total of 57 fits two leaky defenses. The series is tight, Maryland 1-2, with the last meeting in 2022 going to Purdue 31-29.
Resumes temper the favorite status. Purdue is 3-5, with wins over Illinois 24-17 and Minnesota 41-13 but losses including Notre Dame 10-49. Maryland is 2-6, its wins over Hampton 62-0 and UConn 38-14 offset by defeats to UCLA 3-54 and Illinois 17-20. Season sims project 4.4 wins for Purdue, 3.4 for Maryland, both effectively out of Playoff contention.
Market trusts Purdue more than the model does: a 4.7-point projection priced as a six-point favorite, with two poor defenses lifting the total to 57.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Maryland's win price; Purdue's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Maryland is favored, below it Purdue is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Maryland vs Purdue game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Maryland vs Purdue market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Maryland and Purdue play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Purdue.
Who is favored?
The model projects Purdue by 4.7 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Purdue lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →