Kent State vs South Florida
Kent State visit South Florida in Week 7. The model favors South Florida by 25.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: South Florida rates 0.6 (68th) against Kent State's -22.6 (132nd), a 23.2-point gap that drives a projected South Florida win by 25.6 and a 94 percent win probability. The market is marginally more cautious, pricing South Florida at -20.7 with a 45.5 total and a 90 percent implied win probability, while the ProphetX exchange sits between the two at 92 percent (South Florida -1150, Kent State +1050). The 25.6-point model projection running nearly five points past the 20.7 line is the lone place the model reaches past the market.
The unit ranks reinforce the ratings: South Florida grades 71st on offense and 67th on defense, Kent State 137th and 124th. Season form matches. Kent State sits around its projected 4.1-win pace at 2-4, with wins over Wofford and Ball State but blowout losses of 0-57, 3-59 and 7-38 against stronger competition. South Florida is 4-2 toward a 7.7-win projection, having won at Army 28-24 and beaten Bowling Green 14-6, with narrow losses to Temple and at UTSA 24-31.
Neither simulation shows any Playoff or title equity of note, so this is purely a margin question: the model and market agree on the winner and diverge only on whether South Florida covers a number near three touchdowns.
Every input points one way: South Florida is a heavy favorite, and the only question is the size of the margin.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kent State's win price; South Florida's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kent State is favored, below it South Florida is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kent State vs South Florida game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kent State vs South Florida market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kent State and South Florida play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at South Florida.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Florida by 25.9 (94% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →