Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee
Kennesaw State visit Middle Tennessee in Week 9. The model favors Kennesaw State by 2.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these two by barely more than a rating point: Kennesaw State sits 120th at -13.8, Middle Tennessee 125th at -15.2. That near-parity drives a coin-flip projection, with the model giving Middle Tennessee a 52% win probability and a one-point margin at home. The market leans the other way. The consensus line of Middle Tennessee +1.3 implies just 47% for the home side and 53% for Kennesaw State, and the ProphetX exchange echoes it with Kennesaw State at -103 (51%) against Middle Tennessee at +100 (50%). The model and the price disagree on which side of a toss-up to take.
Unit ranks underline the fragility: Kennesaw State pairs the 121st offense with a 105th defense, while Middle Tennessee offsets a 117th offense with a 119th defense. Results favor the host, which has reached four wins and a projected 6.2-win season against Kennesaw State's 1-6 mark and 3.4-win projection. The series is even at 1-1, but Kennesaw State took the last meeting 24-16 in 2025. Neither 10,000-run simulation shows any Playoff or title path.
A rating-point gap and a 52/48 model split meet a market that prices Kennesaw State as the slim favorite: a genuine toss-up.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kennesaw State's win price; Middle Tennessee's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kennesaw State is favored, below it Middle Tennessee is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kennesaw State and Middle Tennessee play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 28, 2026 at Middle Tennessee.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kennesaw State by 2.1 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →