Redshirt
Matchup preview

Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State

Jacksonville State visit New Mexico State in Week 9. The model favors Jacksonville State by 10.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
73%
27%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#83SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#119
#100FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#126
1491EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1172
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Jacksonville StateNew Mexico Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20232024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
54-13
Jacksonville State
at Jacksonville State
2023
20-17
New Mexico State
at New Mexico State
More Week 9 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Jacksonville State and New Mexico State play?

Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 29, 2026 at New Mexico State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Jacksonville State by 10.1 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →