Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State
Jacksonville State visit New Mexico State in Week 9. The model favors Jacksonville State by 18.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Jacksonville State at -2.6 (85th) against New Mexico State at -13.4 (119th), a near 11-point ratings gap that drives a projected Jacksonville State margin of 8.4 and a 69 percent win probability. The consensus market is more cautious, listing New Mexico State +3 with a 49.5 total and implying just 57 percent for the visitor. The ProphetX exchange splits the difference at -142 (59 percent). That 12-point probability spread between model and consensus is the central disagreement, with the exchange sitting closer to the line than to SP+.
The unit ranks reinforce the gap: Jacksonville State grades 79th on offense and 83rd on defense, while New Mexico State sits 122nd and 100th, behind on both sides. The series is even at 1-1, but the last meeting in 2024 went to Jacksonville State 54-13, the kind of result SP+ is leaning on here.
Form tracks the ratings. Jacksonville State is 5-2 with four straight wins and a projected 8.4-win season; New Mexico State is 3-4, projecting 5.1 wins, its victories coming against Mercyhurst, Western Kentucky and Sam Houston. Neither team carries Playoff equity at 1.4 and 0 percent. The numbers point one way, and the market has yet to fully follow.
SP+ favors Jacksonville State by 8.4 and prices it at 69 percent, well clear of the market's 57, making the road side the model's lean.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Jacksonville State's win price; New Mexico State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Jacksonville State is favored, below it New Mexico State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Jacksonville State and New Mexico State play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 29, 2026 at New Mexico State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Jacksonville State by 18.2 (86% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →