Iowa State vs Baylor
Iowa State visit Baylor in Week 10. The model favors Baylor by 12.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ gives Baylor a 77% win probability and a 12.1-point projected margin, a shade stronger than the consensus Baylor -10 line and its 73% implied figure. The ProphetX exchange splits the difference at Baylor -325, or 76%, with Iowa State offered at +320 for 24%. Across model, two-book market, and live exchange, the Baylor number holds in a tight 73 to 77% band, so the disagreement to trade is marginal rather than structural.
The ratings gap is the story: Baylor sits at 8.5 (rank 43) against Iowa State at -1.2 (rank 76). The unit splits reinforce it, with Baylor's defense at #29 facing an Iowa State offense ranked #93, while Baylor's #59 offense meets a middling #60 Iowa State defense. Season projections echo the separation, 6.8 wins and a 3% Playoff chance for Baylor versus 5.5 wins and 0% for Iowa State.
The series is even at 6-5 Baylor, but the last meeting in 2024 went to Iowa State 43-21. This season both have produced wild scorelines: Iowa State's 51-49 over Oklahoma State and 45-42 over West Virginia against a 3-39 loss at Arizona, while Baylor's 55-19 at Arizona State contrasts with a 6-17 loss to TCU and a one-point defeat at Kansas.
Model, market, and exchange all cluster around a 73-77% Baylor price, leaving little daylight for an Iowa State edge.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Iowa State's win price; Baylor's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Iowa State is favored, below it Baylor is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Iowa State vs Baylor game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Iowa State vs Baylor market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Iowa State and Baylor play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Baylor.
Who is favored?
The model projects Baylor by 12.1 (77% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Baylor lead 6-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →