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Matchup preview

Iowa vs Northwestern

Iowa visit Northwestern in Week 10. The model favors Northwestern by 3.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
41%
59%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
IOWA -2.8
Total (O/U)
42.8
Favorite
IOWA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
Iowa
57%

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Iowa56%+4 ptsvsNorthwestern44%-4 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Iowa favoredNorthwestern favoredOct 25Oct 29Nov 1Nov 4Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Iowa's win price; Northwestern's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Iowa is favored, below it Northwestern is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#24SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#20
#18FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#56
1937EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1574
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
IowaNorthwesternsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Iowa lead 7-4
Iowa have won the last 4
20152024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
40-14
Iowa
at Iowa
2023
10-7
Iowa
neutral site
2022
33-13
Iowa
at Iowa
2021
17-12
Iowa
at Northwestern
2020
21-20
Northwestern
at Iowa
2019
20-0
Iowa
at Northwestern
2018
14-10
Northwestern
at Iowa
2017
17-10
Northwestern
at Northwestern
2016
38-31
Northwestern
at Iowa
2015
40-10
Iowa
at Northwestern
2014
48-7
Iowa
at Iowa
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Iowa vs Northwestern game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Iowa vs Northwestern market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Iowa and Northwestern play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 8, 2026 at Northwestern.

Who is favored?

The model projects Northwestern by 3.7 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Iowa lead 7-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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