Iowa vs Minnesota
Iowa visit Minnesota in Week 8. The model favors Iowa by 6.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Iowa at 13.6 (22nd) against Minnesota at 3.1 (60th), a gap that drives a projected Iowa margin of 8.1 and a 69 percent model win probability. The ProphetX exchange agrees almost exactly, pricing Iowa at -235 for a 70 percent implied read. The consensus line across two books is softer: Minnesota +6.5 and a 40.5 total translate to Iowa at 65 percent, five points below the model. That leaves daylight between the market line and both the simulation and the live exchange, all three of which lean harder toward Iowa.
The unit splits favor the road side: Iowa's defense ranks 13th against a Minnesota offense at 85th, while Iowa's 49th offense faces a 39th-ranked defense. Series history is lopsided at 10-2 Iowa, including a 41-3 result in the 2025 meeting. Both teams have one Big Ten road win at Washington, Iowa 41-24 and Minnesota 27-24, but Iowa also owns a 20-19 win at Michigan, while Minnesota was beaten 13-41 at Purdue. On the season, Iowa projects to 8.5 wins and 18.3 percent Playoff odds against Minnesota's 6.1 wins and 0.8 percent.
Model and exchange converge near 69 to 70 percent Iowa; the market line leaves a small gap to close.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Iowa's win price; Minnesota's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Iowa is favored, below it Minnesota is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Iowa vs Minnesota game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Iowa vs Minnesota market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Iowa and Minnesota play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Minnesota.
Who is favored?
The model projects Iowa by 6.1 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Iowa lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →