Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois
Hawai'i visit Northern Illinois in Week 8. The model favors Hawai'i by 13.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 12.4 points, rating Hawai'i at -12.6 (119th) against Northern Illinois at -25 (136th), and translates that into a projected 10-point Hawai'i margin and a 73% win probability. The market is more cautious: the consensus line sits at Northern Illinois +4.3 with a 47.8 total, implying 60% for the visitor, while the ProphetX exchange prices Hawai'i at -172, or 63%. That leaves a 10-to-13 point probability gap where the model backs the road side harder than traders do.
The unit ranks frame the edge. Hawai'i's offense (122) and defense (100) both outrank Northern Illinois's offense (136) and defense (134), and the season simulations widen the distance, projecting 3.6 wins for Hawai'i against 1.6 for the Huskies across 10,000 runs. Neither program carries any Playoff or title equity.
Results add context without closing the gap. Hawai'i is 1-6 but has stayed close in spots, losing 16-20 to San Jose State and 10-21 to New Mexico with a 29-19 win over New Mexico State. Northern Illinois is 0-6 and has been beaten by 25 or more four times, including 0-40 at Iowa and 7-28 against Air Force, reinforcing why the model leans toward the visitor.
The model is firmer on Hawai'i than either market, pricing a 73% road favorite against a book-implied 60% and exchange-implied 63%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Hawai'i's win price; Northern Illinois's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Hawai'i is favored, below it Northern Illinois is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Hawai'i and Northern Illinois play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Northern Illinois.
Who is favored?
The model projects Hawai'i by 13.4 (79% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →