Georgia State vs Kennesaw State
Georgia State visit Kennesaw State in Week 2. The model favors Georgia State by 2.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear separation despite both teams sitting deep in the ratings: Kennesaw State at -7.4 (rank 96) holds a 15.3-point edge over Georgia State at -22.7 (rank 131). The model projects Kennesaw State by 17.7 and prices the home side at an 86% win probability. Unit ranks back the gap on both sides, with Kennesaw State ahead on offense (#94 to #116) and defense (#92 to #137).
The market is far more cautious. The consensus line of Kennesaw State -9.5 implies 72%, and the ProphetX exchange offers Kennesaw State at -310 (76%) against Georgia State +295 (25%). That leaves an 8-point spread between the model margin of 17.7 and the market number of 9.5, one of the wider model-market disagreements a rating this lopsided can produce. Season simulations lean Kennesaw State as well, projecting 7.3 wins to Georgia State's 4.4.
Series history is thin and cuts the other way: Georgia State leads 1-0, taking the only prior meeting 24-20 back in 2018. Both teams enter off blowouts, Georgia State 59-10 over North Carolina A&T and Kennesaw State 47-0 over West Georgia, so neither has been tested. The total sits at 54.5.
The model sees a 17.7-point Kennesaw State win while the market prices barely half that, leaving the sharpest gap on the home favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Georgia State's win price; Kennesaw State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Georgia State is favored, below it Kennesaw State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Georgia State vs Kennesaw State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Georgia State vs Kennesaw State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Georgia State and Kennesaw State play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Kennesaw State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia State by 2.6 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Georgia State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →