Georgia State vs James Madison
Georgia State visit James Madison in Week 7. The model favors James Madison by 16.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear tier gap: James Madison rates 9.4 (rank 40) against Georgia State at -4.8 (rank 91), good for an 84% model win probability and a projected 16.6-point margin. The market is a shade more cautious, pricing James Madison -12.5 on a 57.8 total for a 78% implied edge, while the ProphetX exchange sits firmer at -420 (81%) with Georgia State offered at +400 (20%). The model's number therefore runs ahead of the consensus line, leaving roughly four points between projection and price.
The unit splits explain the separation. James Madison grades out balanced at #44 offense and #39 defense, while Georgia State pairs a #64 offense with a #114 defense, the clearest mismatch on the board and the reason the margin projects into double digits. Series history leans the same way: James Madison holds a 4-0 record, including a 14-7 result in the 2025 meeting.
Form reinforces the ratings. James Madison enters 6-0 with wins over Liberty, Marshall and Georgia Southern, carrying a projected 10.7 wins and a 33.8% Playoff probability. Georgia State sits 4-1, its lone loss 30-44 at UCF, and projects to 7.8 wins with just 0.8% Playoff odds. The numbers point one direction; the only open question is the spread, where the model is more bullish than the -12.5 market.
The model backs James Madison harder than the market, projecting a 16.6-point win against a -12.5 line and a stark defensive mismatch.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Georgia State's win price; James Madison's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Georgia State is favored, below it James Madison is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Georgia State vs James Madison game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Georgia State vs James Madison market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Georgia State and James Madison play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at James Madison.
Who is favored?
The model projects James Madison by 16.6 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
James Madison lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →