Eastern Michigan vs Ohio
Eastern Michigan visit Ohio in Week 8. The model favors Ohio by 15.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these MAC teams by a wide margin: Ohio at -2 (rank 83) against Eastern Michigan at -14.4 (rank 123). That 12.4-point ratings gap feeds a projected Ohio margin of 14.8, two full points clear of the consensus line of Ohio -12.2 on a 48.5 total. The model's 82% Ohio win probability also sits above the market-implied 77%, with the ProphetX exchange splitting the difference at 81% (Ohio -415, Eastern Michigan +375). The direction is consistent across all three sources, and the model prices the favorite slightly stronger than the books.
Unit ranks reinforce the lean: Ohio grades out ahead on both sides (offense #92, defense #68) versus Eastern Michigan (#115, #113), with the defensive edge the sharpest. Series history is thin but one-sided, Ohio holding a 4-1 lead and taking last year's meeting 28-21. Season simulations frame the tiers cleanly, Ohio projected for 8.3 wins and 1.3% Playoff odds against Eastern Michigan's 5.7 wins and 0%.
Results add context to the gap. Eastern Michigan is 4-4, with wins over Massachusetts (38-14) and Akron (25-23) but blowout losses at Michigan State (7-35) and Wisconsin (10-54) and a 14-34 home loss to Toledo. Ohio has won five of its last six, including 48-7 at Sacramento State and 31-14 over Central Michigan, its losses coming by single digits at South Alabama (36-41) and early at Nebraska (21-49).
The model leans harder on Ohio than the market, and the ratings gap backs the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Eastern Michigan's win price; Ohio's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Eastern Michigan is favored, below it Ohio is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Eastern Michigan vs Ohio game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Eastern Michigan vs Ohio market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Eastern Michigan and Ohio play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Ohio.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio by 15.5 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio lead 4-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →