East Carolina vs Memphis
East Carolina visit Memphis in Week 8. The model favors Memphis by 14.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model separates these teams cleanly: Memphis rates 6.5 (rank 50) against East Carolina at -3.8 (rank 92), and SP+ projects Memphis by 12.7 with a 78% win probability. The consensus line sits at Memphis -10 with a 54.3 total, implying 73%, so the model prices roughly three points and five percentage points more toward the favorite. The ProphetX exchange splits the difference against the market, offering Memphis -345 (78%) and East Carolina +325 (24%), landing on the model's read rather than the books'.
Unit ranks frame the edge. Memphis brings the #33 offense against an East Carolina defense ranked #58, while the East Carolina offense (#105) faces a Memphis defense that grades out at #72. Memphis carries a 5-2 record with wins by 51 at Charlotte and 25 over UAB, losing only at Boise State and Tulane. East Carolina sits 3-3, with the UAB loss (17-30) and a one-point defeat to App State offsetting wins over Rice and Old Dominion.
The series offers the lone counterweight: East Carolina leads 3-2 and took the 2025 meeting 31-27. Season simulations keep the teams apart, projecting 8.1 wins for Memphis against 6 for East Carolina, with Memphis at 5.6% to make the Playoff versus 0.1%.
SP+ leans harder on Memphis than the two-book line does, and the exchange agrees with the model.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as East Carolina's win price; Memphis's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line East Carolina is favored, below it Memphis is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the East Carolina vs Memphis game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the East Carolina vs Memphis market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do East Carolina and Memphis play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 22, 2026 at Memphis.
Who is favored?
The model projects Memphis by 14.8 (82% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
East Carolina lead 3-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →