Duke vs NC State
Duke visit NC State in Week 10. The model favors Duke by 5.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these ACC teams by 7.7 rating points, Duke at 6.8 (47th) against NC State at -0.9 (74th), and the model converts that into a 63% Duke win probability with a projected 5.3-point Duke margin. The market lands in the same place: NC State +4.5 implies a 61% Duke number and a 51.5 total. A two-point probability gap and under a point of margin disagreement leave almost no daylight between model and price here.
The unit ranks point to where the edge lives. Duke grades out at 49th on offense and 44th on defense, a balanced profile, while NC State pairs a comparable 46th-ranked offense with a 107th-ranked defense. That defensive hole is the structural case for Duke, and the results echo it: Duke sits with wins including 47-2 over Boston College and 19-16 at Virginia, against losses of 24-20 and 28-25. NC State has alternated, following a 31-10 win over California with earlier blowout losses of 34-8 and 38-14.
Simulations give Duke 7.7 projected wins to NC State's 5.7, with 3% Playoff odds versus 0%. The series adds Duke's 3-1 edge and a 45-33 win in the 2025 meeting.
Model and market both price Duke near 62%, and NC State's 107th-ranked defense is the gap that keeps them aligned.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Duke's win price; NC State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Duke is favored, below it NC State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Duke vs NC State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Duke vs NC State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Duke and NC State play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at NC State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Duke by 5.3 (63% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Duke lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →