Delaware vs Virginia
Delaware visit Virginia in Week 4. The model favors Virginia by 21. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear tier gap: Virginia sits 36th at 10.5 while Delaware ranks 103rd at -8.1. The model puts Virginia at 90 percent with a projected 21-point margin, running slightly ahead of the two-book consensus of Virginia -19.5 and a 52.5 total. Market-implied and exchange pricing agree with the direction, if not the size: books read Virginia at 88 percent, while ProphetX offers Virginia -1050 (91 percent) against Delaware +860 (10 percent). The 1.5-point spread between model margin and market line is the only real disagreement on the board.
The unit ranks explain the lean. Virginia grades 23rd on defense and 51st on offense; Delaware carries an 85th offense and a 110th defense, the widest single gap in the matchup. Results this season track those numbers. Virginia beat NC State 34-8 and Norfolk State 59-3 before falling 27-38 to West Virginia. Delaware handled Merrimack 42-7 and edged Coastal Carolina 22-14, with a 26-35 loss at Vanderbilt as the lone step up in class.
Longer-run simulations keep the separation modest at the top. Virginia projects 7.4 wins with 9.1 percent Playoff odds and 0.2 percent to win the title, against market title odds of 0.8 percent. Delaware projects 6.7 wins, 0.4 percent to reach the Playoff and zero to win it. For a single game, the model and market are aligned; the only edge to price is the margin gap.
Model and market agree on Virginia near 90 percent, splitting only on a projected 21 versus a posted 19.5.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Delaware's win price; Virginia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Delaware is favored, below it Virginia is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Delaware vs Virginia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Delaware vs Virginia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Delaware and Virginia play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Virginia.
Who is favored?
The model projects Virginia by 21 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →