Colorado State vs UTSA
Colorado State visit UTSA in Week 4. The model favors UTSA by 7.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by roughly five rating points, UTSA at -1.4 (rank 74) over Colorado State at -6.6 (rank 96), and projects UTSA by 7.6 with a 68 percent win probability. The market is more decisive: the consensus line of UTSA -13.5 implies 79 percent, and the ProphetX exchange goes further at -480, or 83 percent. That is an 11-to-15 point probability gap between model and price, the clearest disagreement on the board.
The unit ranks favor UTSA on one side only: its offense (#56) faces a Colorado State defense (#84), while its own defense (#99) is the weakest number in the matchup against a #102 Rams offense. Both teams sit 2-1. UTSA handled UT Rio Grande Valley 45-16 and edged Texas State 31-26 but fell 6-30 at Texas. Colorado State beat Wyoming 35-13 and Southern Utah 58-24 before losing 23-41 to BYU.
The series is tight, Colorado State 2-1, with UTSA taking last year's meeting 17-16. Season simulations give UTSA 7.3 projected wins to Colorado State's 5.4, and the posted total is 58.3.
SP+ likes UTSA by 7.6 but the market's -13.5 prices in nearly a touchdown more, leaving daylight on the Colorado State side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Colorado State's win price; UTSA's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Colorado State is favored, below it UTSA is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Colorado State vs UTSA game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Colorado State vs UTSA market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Colorado State and UTSA play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at UTSA.
Who is favored?
The model projects UTSA by 7.6 (68% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Colorado State lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →