Colorado vs Baylor
Colorado visit Baylor in Week 4. The model favors Baylor by 10.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit almost on top of each other. SP+ makes Baylor a 74% favorite by 10.4 points, the consensus line reads Baylor -10 with a 55.5 total and 73% implied, and the ProphetX exchange offers Baylor -355 (78%) against Colorado +335 (23%). That is tight agreement across three sources, with the exchange leaning marginally harder on Baylor than the model does.
The ratings gap is the story: Baylor grades 6.8 (48th) to Colorado's -1.2 (72nd), and the unit splits favor the home side, with Baylor's offense 32nd against Colorado's 84th. Defenses are closer, 66th to 72nd. Results reinforce the profile: Baylor lost 17-16 at Auburn then handled Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech, while Colorado edged Georgia Tech 14-13, beat Weber State 52-21, but was crushed 41-7 at Northwestern.
Series history is Colorado's only counterweight: Baylor is 0-1 against the Buffaloes, who won the 2024 meeting 38-31. Season simulations frame the stakes modestly, with Baylor projected 6.2 wins and 3.3% Playoff odds against Colorado's 4.9 wins and 0.3%.
Model, consensus line and exchange all price Baylor near 74%, and the ratings gap backs it, leaving Colorado a live but secondary contract.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Colorado's win price; Baylor's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Colorado is favored, below it Baylor is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Colorado vs Baylor game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Colorado vs Baylor market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Colorado and Baylor play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Baylor.
Who is favored?
The model projects Baylor by 10.4 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Colorado lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →