Cincinnati vs Houston
Cincinnati visit Houston in Week 10. The model favors Houston by 9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Houston 13.3 (22nd) against Cincinnati 6.7 (49th), a gap that projects Houston by 9 with a 71% win probability. The market leans a touch harder on the favorite: the consensus line is Houston -10.5 at 74%, and the ProphetX exchange goes further still, pricing Houston -370 (implied 79%) versus Cincinnati +360 (22%). The eight-point spread between the model's 71% and the exchange's 79% is where the disagreement concentrates.
The unit splits favor Houston at the point of attack. Its offense ranks 11th into a Cincinnati defense ranked 78th, while Cincinnati's 21st-ranked offense meets a 45th-ranked Houston defense, framing the 62.5 total. Common opponents muddy the ratings gap: both beat Kansas State (Cincinnati 31-26, Houston 35-16), both lost at Utah (Cincinnati 25-49, Houston 13-21), and against Texas Tech Cincinnati won 37-24 while Houston fell 26-28.
Series history runs the other way. Cincinnati leads 6-2 and won the 2024 meeting 34-0. The season simulations still separate the programs: Houston projects to 8.7 wins with a 17.4% Playoff chance, Cincinnati to 6.9 wins at 1.7%. Houston's 1% title odds sit just above the market's 0.7%.
The model likes Houston by 9, but the exchange's 79% runs ahead of SP+'s 71%, and a 6-2 series edge complicates the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Cincinnati's win price; Houston's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Cincinnati is favored, below it Houston is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Cincinnati vs Houston game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Cincinnati vs Houston market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Cincinnati and Houston play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Houston.
Who is favored?
The model projects Houston by 9 (71% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Cincinnati lead 6-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →