Charlotte vs UAB
Charlotte visit UAB in Week 10. The model favors UAB by 17.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the market disagree on scale, not direction. The model separates these teams by 15 rating points (UAB -10.4, rank 110; Charlotte -25.4, rank 137) and projects UAB by 17.4, worth an 85% win probability. The consensus line of UAB -8.5 implies only 70%, and the ProphetX exchange sits between the two at 76% for UAB (-320) against Charlotte's +305 (25%). The model sees a double-digit favorite where two books price a single-digit one.
The unit ranks reinforce the gap: UAB grades out at #109 offense and #103 defense, Charlotte at #128 and #138. Season form tracks that divide. UAB is 4-4 with wins over UL Monroe, Navy, Samford and East Carolina, while Charlotte is 1-7, its lone win 38-31 at Temple, with blowout losses to Memphis (8-59) and North Texas (10-50). Projected win totals of 5.8 to 1.8 frame the same spread over a full season.
The series offers the counterweight. These teams are tied 2-2, and the most recent meeting in 2024 went to Charlotte, 29-27, a one-score result that argues against reading the matchup as a mismatch on history alone.
The model's 17.4-point projection runs well ahead of a market that prices UAB at just -8.5, flagging the home side as the value.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Charlotte's win price; UAB's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Charlotte is favored, below it UAB is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Charlotte vs UAB game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Charlotte vs UAB market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Charlotte and UAB play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at UAB.
Who is favored?
The model projects UAB by 17.4 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 2-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →