Buffalo vs Florida International
Buffalo visit Florida International in Week 2. The model favors Florida International by 6.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by less than two points, rating Buffalo at -11.6 (rank 109) and Florida International at -13.5 (rank 116). The projected margin is Florida International by 0.5, with win probability at 51% to 49%. That near-tie is a battle of flaws: Buffalo brings the 125th-ranked offense against a defense at 80, while Florida International pairs the 108th offense with the 115th defense. No unit on the field ranks inside the top half.
The pricing tells a different story. The consensus line sits at Florida International -10.2 with a total of 47.5, implying a 73% home win probability, and the ProphetX exchange goes further at -365, or 78%, against Buffalo's +355 (22%). That is a 20-plus point probability gap versus the model's 49%, a wide disconnect between a coin-flip projection and a double-digit price.
Early results add little to justify the market lean: Buffalo edged UAlbany 21-17, while Florida International opened with a 9-19 loss at South Florida. Season simulations project 6.9 wins for Buffalo and 5.7 for Florida International, tilting the fundamentals back toward the visitor the price fades.
The model calls this a coin flip while the market prices Florida International as a double-digit favorite, and that gap is the whole trade.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Buffalo's win price; Florida International's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Buffalo is favored, below it Florida International is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Buffalo vs Florida International game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Buffalo vs Florida International market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Buffalo and Florida International play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Florida International.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida International by 6.2 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →