Baylor vs Kansas
Baylor visit Kansas in Week 8. The model favors Baylor by 3.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit on the same spot: SP+ gives Baylor a 57 percent win probability against Kansas at 43 percent, and the consensus line (Kansas +3, total 52.8) implies the identical split. The ProphetX exchange prices Baylor at -136 (58 percent) and Kansas at +132 (43 percent), leaving no daylight between the three sources. The ratings gap is modest: Baylor 8.9 (40th) to Kansas 3.5 (58th), a projected Baylor margin of three points.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Baylor's defense (#25) towers over Kansas's defense (#60), while the offenses sit a rung apart at #60 and #62. Series history reinforces the lean: Baylor holds a 10-0 record, most recently a 45-17 win in 2024. Season form is mixed on both sides. Baylor is 4-2 with a 55-19 rout at Arizona State but losses of 16-17 at Auburn and 6-17 to TCU. Kansas is 2-4, including a 17-24 loss to Arizona State and road defeats at Utah (24-41) and Kansas State (24-35).
Season outlooks diverge sharply: Baylor projects 6.7 wins with 3.7 percent Playoff odds, Kansas 4.5 wins at 0.2 percent. Baylor's market title price (0.8 percent) runs above its simulated 0.2 percent.
Model, consensus line, and exchange all price Baylor near 57 to 58 percent, with the defensive edge and a 10-0 series backing the lean.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Baylor's win price; Kansas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Baylor is favored, below it Kansas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Baylor vs Kansas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Baylor vs Kansas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Baylor and Kansas play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Kansas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Baylor by 3.3 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Baylor lead 10-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →