Redshirt
Matchup preview

Ball State vs Massachusetts

Ball State visit Massachusetts in Week 10. The model favors Massachusetts by 11.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
24%
76%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · November 4 · refreshed weekly

The model and the market diverge sharply here. SP+ rates Massachusetts at -11.1 (113th) against Ball State's -20.1 (131st), a nine-point ratings gap that drives a projected Massachusetts margin of 11.4 and a 76% win probability. The consensus line across two books sits at just Massachusetts -2.5, with a 48.8 total, implying 56%, and the ProphetX exchange prices the hosts at -132 (57%) against Ball State at +129 (44%). The market treats this as near a coin flip; the model does not.

Unit ranks favor Massachusetts on defense, 99th to 132nd, while the offenses sit close at 116th and 119th. Recent form cuts against the ratings: Massachusetts opened 4-0 but has dropped four straight, including 16-35 at UConn and 18-25 at Buffalo. Ball State is 3-5 yet has won three of its last four, taking Bowling Green 32-31 and Sacramento State 34-17. Simulations project 6.3 wins for Massachusetts and 4.4 for Ball State, neither with Playoff odds. The series is level at 1-1, last met in 2015, a 20-10 Ball State win.

Model leans Massachusetts by double digits, but the market line and recent form argue this is closer to a toss-up.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
MASS -2.5
Total (O/U)
48.8
Favorite
MASS
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#131SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#113
#132FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#136
1010EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.718
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Ball StateMassachusettssolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20142015
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2015
20-10
Ball State
at Ball State
2014
24-10
Massachusetts
at Massachusetts
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Ball State vs Massachusetts game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ball State vs Massachusetts market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Ball State and Massachusetts play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 5, 2026 at Massachusetts.

Who is favored?

The model projects Massachusetts by 11.4 (76% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →