Army vs Tulsa
Army visit Tulsa in Week 8. The model favors Army by 0.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit on opposite sides of a near-even game. SP+ rates Army at 1.2 (67th) against Tulsa at -2.7 (87th), a 3.9-point gap that projects Army by 1.5 and gives the Black Knights a 54% edge. The consensus line flips that read, posting Tulsa -1.7 with a 54% implied win probability, and the ProphetX exchange agrees, pricing Tulsa at -117 (54%) and Army at +112 (47%). The disagreement is small but clean: the ratings favor the road team while two books and the exchange lean home.
Unit ranks frame the matchup. Army's offense (42nd) is the best unit on the field and faces a Tulsa defense ranked 84th, while Army's defense checks in at 97th against a Tulsa offense at 85th. Results fit a middling profile on both sides: Army is 4-2 with wins over Tulane 20-17 and Florida Atlantic 56-24 and one-score losses at Louisiana Tech 29-31 and to South Florida 24-28. Tulsa is 4-3, beating Oklahoma State 24-10 but dropping 44-45 to North Texas and 26-34 at Navy.
Series history underlines the margin. The teams are 1-1, and the 2025 meeting went to Tulsa 26-25, a single point. Season outlooks are close too, with Army projected for 7.3 wins and Tulsa 6.8, and total set at 54.5.
A coin-flip where SP+ leans Army by 1.5 but the market and exchange both price Tulsa at 54%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Army's win price; Tulsa's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Army is favored, below it Tulsa is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Army vs Tulsa game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Army vs Tulsa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Army and Tulsa play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Tulsa.
Who is favored?
The model projects Army by 0.8 (52% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →