Army vs Temple
Army visit Temple in Week 4. The model favors Army by 4.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ installs Army at 0.2 (rank 68) against Temple at minus 6.5 (rank 95), a rating gap that projects Army by 4.3 points. The model gives Army a 60% win probability, the consensus line of Temple plus 3 implies 57%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Army at minus 144, or 59%. Model, books and exchange cluster within a field goal of each other, so the edge on Army is real but thin.
The unit ranks locate it. Army's offense (#69) and defense (#73) sit near Temple's offense (#68), but Temple's defense ranks #114, the widest disparity on the board and a reason the total sits at 48.3. Across a 10,000-run simulation Army projects to 6.8 wins against Temple's 5.6, with Playoff odds of 2.1% versus 0.5%.
Series history reinforces the lean: Army holds a 4-0 record and won the 2025 meeting 14-13. Results add nuance. Army handled Bryant 59-3 but fell to South Florida 24-28, while Temple beat Rhode Island 38-14 and lost 9-27 to Penn State and 48-49 at Toledo. That one-point Toledo loss shows Temple can survive a shootout, yet every price still tilts Army.
Model, books and exchange all price Army by roughly a field goal, and the ratings and series back it.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Army's win price; Temple's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Army is favored, below it Temple is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Army vs Temple game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Army vs Temple market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Army and Temple play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 25, 2026 at Temple.
Who is favored?
The model projects Army by 4.3 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Army lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →