Akron vs Miami (OH)
Akron visit Miami (OH) in Week 7. The model favors Miami (OH) by 23.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market both favor Miami (OH), but by different margins. SP+ rates Miami (OH) at -6.4 (98th) against Akron at -22.4 (131st), a 16-point ratings gap that drives an 87% win probability and a projected 18.4-point margin. The consensus line sits at Miami (OH) -9.5 with a total of 46.3, implying just 72%. That nine-point spread between the model's projection and the market number is the widest lever here: the model sees a near-two-score home win where two books price barely more than a touchdown.
Unit ranks reinforce the lean. Miami (OH) grades out ahead on both sides, offense 99th to Akron's 129th and defense 92nd to 131st, with no category where Akron closes ground. Results this season track those ratings: Akron is 1-5 with its lone win over Robert Morris and losses by 34, 28 and 24, while Miami (OH) is 3-3 with four games decided by four points or fewer, including a 24-21 win over UConn and a 20-19 win at Massachusetts.
Series history adds weight, Miami (OH) leading 8-3 and taking the 2025 meeting 20-7. Simulations project 6.7 wins for Miami (OH) against 2.9 for Akron, with neither carrying meaningful postseason equity at 0.1% and 0% to reach the Playoff.
The model's 18.4-point projection sits far above the market's -9.5, flagging Miami (OH) as the value side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Akron's win price; Miami (OH)'s is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Akron is favored, below it Miami (OH) is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Akron vs Miami (OH) game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Akron vs Miami (OH) market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Akron and Miami (OH) play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Miami (OH).
Who is favored?
The model projects Miami (OH) by 23.3 (92% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Miami (OH) lead 8-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →