Redshirt
Matchup preview

Air Force vs Nevada

Air Force visit Nevada in Week 4. The model favors Air Force by 4.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
61%
39%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
AFA -5.5
Total (O/U)
49.5
Favorite
AFA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Air Force68%-13 ptsvsNevada32%+13 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Air Force favoredNevada favoredSep 13Sep 17Sep 20Sep 23

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Air Force's win price; Nevada's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Air Force is favored, below it Nevada is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#81SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#108
#96FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#123
1386EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1277
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Air ForceNevadasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Air Force lead 5-1
Air Force have won the last 3
20142024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
22-19
Air Force
at Nevada
2022
48-20
Air Force
at Air Force
2021
41-39
Air Force
at Nevada
2018
28-25
Nevada
at Air Force
2017
45-42
Air Force
at Nevada
2014
45-38
Air Force
at Air Force
More Week 4 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Air Force vs Nevada game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Air Force vs Nevada market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Air Force and Nevada play?

Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 27, 2026 at Nevada.

Who is favored?

The model projects Air Force by 4.4 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Air Force lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →