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Matchup preview

Air Force vs Army

Air Force visit Army in Week 10. The model favors Army by 4.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
40%
60%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
ARMY -3.7
Total (O/U)
43.5
Favorite
ARMY
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
Army
59%

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Air Force39%+7 ptsvsArmy61%-7 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Air Force favoredArmy favoredOct 26Oct 28Nov 1Nov 3Nov 5Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Air Force's win price; Army's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Air Force is favored, below it Army is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#73SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#66
#96FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#76
1386EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1589
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Air ForceArmysolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Army lead 7-5
Army have won the last 3
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
20-17
Army
at Air Force
2024
20-3
Army
at Army
2023
23-3
Army
neutral site
2022
13-7
Air Force
neutral site
2021
21-14
Army
neutral site
2020
10-7
Army
at Army
2019
17-13
Air Force
at Air Force
2018
17-14
Army
at Army
2017
21-0
Army
at Air Force
2016
31-12
Air Force
at Army
2015
20-3
Air Force
at Air Force
2014
23-6
Air Force
at Army
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Air Force vs Army game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Air Force vs Army market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Air Force and Army play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 8, 2026 at Army.

Who is favored?

The model projects Army by 4.2 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Army lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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