Florida is the most underpriced playoff contender on the board. The cheapest venue prices its national title contract at 2c on Kalshi, while the model's de-vigged fair value is 10.1%. That is the single largest gap between price and model value across the contender tier.
The title board is the deepest, most liquid read on which teams the market treats as genuine playoff threats, so it doubles as the cleanest signal for make-the-playoff value. Where the cheapest venue trades a contender below model fair value, the contract is underpriced; where it trades above, the market is paying a premium.
Which contender is the most underpriced?
Florida. A 2c best price implies roughly a 2% chance, against a model fair value of 10.1%. No other contender shows a discount of that scale, and it is available on Kalshi.
A gap that wide usually reflects a thin or stale quote on one venue rather than a settled consensus, so the figure warrants a second look before it is treated as gospel. Prices and the model can both be wrong. Still, the direction is clear: the cheapest Florida contract sits far under where the model marks fair value.
The model builds fair value by de-vigging prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, then surfaces the cheapest venue per team. When the cheapest price trails that blended number, the value sits with the contract, not the market.
Where else does the model see value?
Beyond Florida, the discounts are smaller but consistent. Indiana trades at 5c on Polymarket against a 6.1% fair value. Ohio State sits at 9c on Kalshi versus 9.7%. Texas is 9c on Polymarket against 9.1%, and Oregon is 8c on Polymarket against 8.3%. Georgia (5c, fair value 5.4%) and LSU (4c, 4.5%) round out the names trading just under model value.
None of those rivals the Florida gap, but each leans the same way: the cheapest venue is pricing the contender at or slightly below the model's number, leaving the value on the contract side.
The market prices Ohio State and Texas as near coin-flip-to-fair contenders, with the discount measured in fractions of a cent rather than the multiples seen on Florida.
Which contenders are overpriced?
The other side of the board matters just as much. Notre Dame is the clearest overpay among contenders: its cheapest contract is 11c on Polymarket against a 9.7% fair value. Miami trades at 7c versus a 6.5% fair value, and Texas A&M at 4c against 3.3%.
In each case the cheapest venue is asking more than the model thinks the outcome is worth, so the value sits with the market rather than the contract. That is the mirror image of the Florida read.
Alabama, at 3c on Kalshi against a 3.3% fair value, is effectively priced in line with the model, a useful anchor for what fair looks like when price and value converge.
How to read make-the-playoff value in these markets
Best price in cents maps roughly to implied probability, so a contract priced at 9c implies about a 9% chance. Comparing that price to the model's fair value percentage shows whether a venue is paying up or leaving value on the table.
The model's edge comes from blending venues. A single book can carry vig or a stale quote; de-vigging across Kalshi and Polymarket strips that out and produces a consensus fair value, then routing to the cheapest venue captures the best available price. Polymarket trades under code TGSWC and Kalshi under FADE for those comparing venues.
The takeaway: Florida is the standout underpriced contender at 2c against a 10.1% fair value, with Indiana, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon offering thinner discounts, while Notre Dame reads as the contender the market is overpaying. None of this is financial advice, and both prices and the model can miss.
