Ohio State carries a 9.7% model fair value to win the 2026 national title, the second-highest mark on the consensus board behind Florida at 10.1%. The cheapest contract trades at 9c on Kalshi, which sits within a fraction of fair value, so the market and the model are close to agreement on the Buckeyes.
That alignment is the headline. Where some names on the board show a clear gap between price and fair value, Ohio State does not. The model neither fades nor backs the market here in any meaningful size.
What is the model's fair value on Ohio State?
The de-vigged consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket puts Ohio State at 9.7%. That places the Buckeyes in a tight second tier with Notre Dame, also at 9.7%, just ahead of Texas at 9.1% and Oregon at 8.3%.
Only Florida, at 10.1%, prices higher in the model. The spread across the top five names is narrow, which is typical for a futures board this far out from the season: no single team has separated, and the implied probabilities reflect a wide field rather than a clear favorite.
Fair value is a probability estimate, not a guarantee. The model can be wrong, and prices move as information arrives. The figure simply states what the blended, vig-stripped market implies for Ohio State today.
Where is the cheapest place to trade Ohio State?
The best Ohio State title price is 9c on Kalshi. Against a 9.7% fair value, that is close to flat: the contract is priced about where the model says it belongs, with a sliver of theoretical discount.
Venue matters when the gap to fair value is thin, because the entry price is most of the edge. For Ohio State, Kalshi is the cheaper venue on the title market today (promo code FADE). Contrast that with Notre Dame, which shares the same 9.7% fair value but whose best price is 11c on Polymarket, a clear premium to fair.
The practical read: the Buckeyes are a fair-priced contract rather than a dislocation. The cheapest available number is doing its job.
How does Ohio State stack up across venues and rivals?
Within the second tier, pricing relative to fair value separates the names more than the fair values themselves. Ohio State at 9c on Kalshi and Texas at 9c on Polymarket both sit close to or slightly below their model marks. Oregon at 8c on Polymarket also tracks near its 8.3% fair value.
Notre Dame is the outlier of the group, trading at an 11c premium despite identical fair value to Ohio State. That makes Ohio State the more efficient entry among the 9.7% pair.
The chart below lays out the best available price in cents for the cluster, which is where the venue-by-venue read becomes concrete.
Where the model stands on Ohio State
The verdict is a hold-the-line read rather than a call to action. Ohio State's 9c price on Kalshi and 9.7% fair value are close enough that the model sees no material edge in either direction. The Buckeyes are a fairly priced second-tier title contract.
The larger dislocations on this board sit elsewhere, most visibly with Florida. For Ohio State specifically, the signal is efficiency: the cheapest venue is fair, the model agrees, and there is little gap to exploit at current prices.
As always, prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. The figures describe today's market; the season will reprice it.
