Ohio State prices as the model's near co-favorite for the 2026 national title: fair value sits at 11.1%, with the cheapest contract at 12c on Kalshi. That trails only Notre Dame at 11.3% and edges the next tier of Oregon and Texas.
The read is a market and a model in close agreement. A 12c ask against 11.1% fair value is about a one-cent premium, which is inside the normal spread for a top-of-board team. There is no obvious mispricing to exploit at current levels, in either direction.
What is Ohio State's 2026 national title fair value?
The de-vigged consensus puts Ohio State at 11.1%, the second-highest figure on the board. Across the tracked title market, only four teams clear 9.5%: Notre Dame (11.3%), Ohio State (11.1%), Oregon (10.3%) and Texas (9.6%). Georgia rounds out the leaders at 9.1%.
That clustering matters. The top five contenders are separated by roughly two percentage points of fair value, so small shifts in form or price can reorder them quickly. Ohio State's position is strong but not distinct; it shares the front of the board rather than owning it.
Where is Ohio State cheapest to trade?
Kalshi holds the best Ohio State price at 12c. That is the venue to check first for this contract, though liquidity and news can move the cheapest quote between platforms without much warning.
The one-cent gap between the 12c price and 11.1% fair value is the vig at work. On a top-of-board team, that spread is typical, and it is the cost of entry rather than a signal. Traders comparing venues can factor in standing promos such as Kalshi's FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) when weighing where to route an order.
How does Ohio State stack up in the Big Ten?
Ohio State is the highest-rated Big Ten program on the board. The model's fair value of 11.1% sits ahead of Oregon at 10.3% and Indiana at 8.2%, the only other conference members priced inside the title market.
That makes the Big Ten the deepest conference on the board by contender count, with three teams carrying real title probability. Ohio State leads that group, but the margin over Oregon is under one percentage point, so the conference picture is far from settled at these prices.
Ohio State title fair value vs the field
The chart below sets Ohio State's fair value against the rest of the top tier. The spread from Notre Dame down to Georgia is narrow, which is why the model treats the top of the board as a cluster rather than a clear hierarchy.
A second view compares the best available prices for the Big Ten's three priced contenders. Ohio State's 12c is the most expensive of the three, consistent with its status as the conference's top-rated team.
Where the model stands on Ohio State
The verdict is neutral. Ohio State prices as the second choice on the board, and at 12c against 11.1% fair value the contract offers no clear edge. The market has this one close to right.
That is a different profile from a fade or a value call. Ohio State is neither cheap nor rich in a way the model can act on; it is simply a strong contender priced like one. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and this is not financial advice, but at current levels the read is to wait for a move rather than chase the top of a tightly packed board.
