Notre Dame sits tied for the top of the model's 2026 national title board at 11.3% fair value, with the cheapest contract priced at 13c on Kalshi. As an independent, it carries no conference-title market, so that single title line is the entire tradable book.
That co-leader status puts Notre Dame alongside Ohio State and a step ahead of Oregon, Texas and Georgia. The price, however, sits above the model, which shifts the read from value to a mild fade.
What is Notre Dame's 2026 national title value?
The model's fair value for Notre Dame is 11.3%, the joint-highest figure on the board and identical to Ohio State. Behind that pair, Oregon prices at 10.1%, Texas at 9.7% and Georgia at 9%, so the front of the market is tightly bunched inside roughly two points.
Fair value is the de-vigged consensus across the tracked venues, stripping the built-in margin so the number reads as a clean probability. At 11.3%, the model gives Notre Dame a little better than a one-in-nine implied path to the title.
That standing reflects a program the market treats as a genuine contender rather than a longshot. The question for a trader is not whether Notre Dame belongs near the top, but whether the price on offer respects that fair value.
Why does Notre Dame have no conference-title odds?
Notre Dame competes as an independent in football, so it does not enter a conference-title race and there is no conference market to price. Every other contender near the top of the board carries a second line, Big Ten or SEC equity, that a trader can lean on; Notre Dame does not.
That changes how the number should be read. For a Big Ten or SEC team, national title value is partly a function of surviving a conference gauntlet and then a division-free title game. Notre Dame's path runs straight through the regular season into the playoff, with no conference championship weekend to clear or to stumble in.
The practical effect is a cleaner, single-market book. There is no conference hedge and no conference overlay to arbitrage; the 11.3% fair value and the 13c contract are the whole picture.
Is Notre Dame's price above or below model fair value?
The cheapest Notre Dame contract is 13c, while the model's fair value is 11.3%. Price sits above the model, so the market is charging a premium of a couple of cents over what the consensus considers fair.
That places Notre Dame in fade territory rather than value territory. When the best available price tops fair value, the model is signaling that the contract is priced rich, not cheap, even at the top of the board.
The premium is modest, not extreme, and it mirrors Ohio State, which also trades at 13c against 11.3% fair. Co-leaders at the front of a bunched board tend to draw that kind of small markup as liquidity concentrates on the names traders know best.
Where is the cheapest Notre Dame contract, and how does it stack up?
Across the tracked venues of Kalshi and Polymarket, Kalshi holds the best Notre Dame price at 13c. For traders comparing entries, the venue with the lowest ask is where the implied cost of the position is smallest, and here that is Kalshi. New Kalshi accounts can apply code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500).
Relative to the board, 13c is level with Ohio State and two cents richer than Oregon or Texas at 11c. Georgia sits at 10c and Indiana at 9c, so Notre Dame is priced firmly among the market's short list rather than as a speculative flier.
The takeaway is straightforward: Notre Dame owns co-top billing on fair value, but the contract trades slightly above the model. That combination frames it as a name to respect and a price to scrutinize, with the model leaning against paying the premium rather than reaching for it. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice.
