The CFB longshot tier looks cheap and reads as value, but the model disagrees. LSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Ole Miss all price above their consensus fair value, so the bottom of the national title board carries no positive edge. The cleanest read: these are model fades, not model plays.
The pattern is consistent. Every longshot contract sits below the co-favorite cluster at 8.5% (Texas, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami), and every one of them quotes richer than fair value once the vig is stripped out.
Which longshot teams does the model actually back?
On current prices, none of them. LSU carries the tightest gap at 4.4% fair value against a 6c best price on Kalshi, a proportional markup of roughly 36%. That makes LSU the least-overpriced contract in the group, but paying 6c for something the model values at 4.4c is still paying up.
Texas A&M follows at 2.8% fair value versus a 4c quote. Oklahoma and Ole Miss share the floor of the priced board at 2% fair value each, both quoted at 3c. In every case the market price exceeds the de-vigged fair value, which is why the model points away from the tier rather than into it.
How heavy is the vig on cheap contracts?
The overround bites harder the cheaper the contract. LSU's 6c-over-4.4% is a 36% markup; Texas A&M's 4c-over-2.8% is closer to 43%; Oklahoma and Ole Miss at 3c-over-2% each run a full 50%. The proportional cost of entry rises as fair value falls.
That is the structural trap in longshot trading. A low absolute price feels forgiving, but the gap between what is paid and what the model says the contract is worth widens down the board. The raw cent figure disguises how much edge the market is keeping.
Longshot fair value against best price
The chart below lines up model fair value against the cheapest quoted price for the bottom tier plus Georgia as the bridge. In every row the price bar clears the fair-value bar, which is the visual signature of a market the model fades.
Georgia sits just above the tier at 5.2% fair value and a 7c best price, a gap in line with the longshots below it rather than tighter.
Does venue change the longshot read?
Not on this board. Kalshi holds the best available price on all four longshot contracts, so there is no cheaper venue to shift the math. The model's fade stands regardless of where the contract is entered, and the Kalshi FADE promo does not alter the fair-value gap.
The takeaway for the bottom tier is discipline over enthusiasm. Cheap prices invite volume, but the proportional vig on 3c and 4c contracts is the heaviest on the board. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice, yet the data points one direction: the CFB longshot tier is priced rich to fair value, and the tightest gap belongs to LSU.
