Indiana's 2026 national title contract prices at a model fair value of 8.7%, with the cheapest venue at 9c on Kalshi. That is a tight read: the market asks roughly 0.3 points over the model, one of the narrowest price-to-fair gaps on the entire board.
In a title market where longshots routinely carry a fat premium over fair value, Indiana is priced as a contender the market takes seriously rather than a dart throw.
What are Indiana's 2026 title futures odds?
Indiana sits sixth on the tracked title board by fair value at 8.7%, a shade behind Georgia at 8.9% and comfortably clear of Miami at 6.6%. The best available contract is 9c on Kalshi, so the implied purchase price maps almost directly onto the model's number.
For a longshot tier where price floors often sit well above fair value, that alignment is the notable part. Indiana is not carrying the double-digit overround that weighs on deeper names on the board.
The consensus figure is a de-vigged fair value built across Kalshi and Polymarket, then matched against the cheapest live contract. On Indiana, the two lines nearly meet.
Where does Indiana stand in the Big Ten market?
Within the Big Ten, Indiana is the third name on the title board by model value. Ohio State leads the conference at 11.2% fair value, Oregon follows at 10.1%, and Indiana lands at 8.7%. Three Big Ten programs inside the top six underlines how much national title equity the conference commands.
No standalone conference-title contract for Indiana appears in the tracked venues, so the national title price is the cleanest available signal on the program. Traders reading Indiana's Big Ten standing are effectively reading it through title equity, not a dedicated conference market.
The gap from Indiana to Oregon is 1.4 points of fair value, and to Ohio State 2.5 points. That is the model's ordering of the Big Ten's upper tier, with Indiana clearly inside it rather than chasing it.
How does the price compare to fair value?
The cheapest Indiana contract is 9c on Kalshi against 8.7% fair value. Converting the price to implied probability leaves a premium of roughly 0.3 points, which is minimal relative to the deeper longshots on the board.
By contrast, the top of the board asks more in absolute cents: Ohio State at 13c, Texas at 12c, Oregon at 11c and Georgia at 10c. Indiana's 9c is the lowest entry among the top six, consistent with its position just below the Georgia line.
The takeaway is not that Indiana is mispriced but that it is priced honestly. When the venue price and the model converge, the edge is thin in both directions.
Where the model stands on Indiana
The model's stance is neutral-to-constructive: Indiana belongs in the top six, and the market agrees closely enough that no clear value gap opens up at 9c. Kalshi is the venue of record for the cheapest price, and its FADE code (trade $25, get up to $500) is the relevant promo for anyone building exposure there.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and an 8.7% fair value still implies the field is far more likely than not to lift the trophy elsewhere. The reading here is descriptive, not advice: Indiana's contract is trading close to what the consensus says it is worth.
For a program the market once treated as a board filler, pricing inside the title top six with a near-flush price-to-fair line is the story. The edge is small; the respect is not.
