Indiana's 2026 national title fair value is 6.8%, with a best price of 9c on Kalshi. That is second-tier standing on the title board: below Miami at 9.2% and the 8.4% cluster of Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame, and level with Ohio State at 6.8%.
The read is straightforward. The market has moved Indiana from afterthought to legitimate contender, and the model agrees the Hoosiers belong in the conversation. The disagreement is narrow, and it is about price rather than presence.
What is Indiana's national title fair value?
The model's fair value for Indiana is 6.8%. A best price of 9c implies roughly 9% before adjusting for the venue's margin, so the traded price sits above the model's number.
That gap points one direction: the contract is priced a touch rich, not cheap. When the price implies more probability than the model assigns, the value case for buying weakens. At 9c, Indiana is a fairly priced-to-slightly-expensive contract by the model's read, not a discount.
This is the opposite of a longshot edge. The interesting Indiana story is not a mispriced number; it is how far and how fast the market has repriced the program upward, and whether that respect is now fully baked in.
Where does Indiana sit on the title board?
Indiana ranks inside the top tier of the board without leading it. Miami sets the pace at 9.2%, followed by Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame at 8.4% each. Ohio State and Indiana share the next rung at 6.8%, ahead of Georgia at 5.2% and LSU at 4.4%.
For a program historically absent from title markets, being level with Ohio State on fair value is the headline. The model is not treating Indiana as a novelty entry; it is treating the Hoosiers as a genuine second-tier contender.
National title fair value: Indiana in context
The chart below places Indiana against the teams immediately around it on the board, using de-vigged model fair value.
Price versus fair value: is there an edge?
The second chart contrasts Indiana's best price with the implied cost of the tier around it. At 9c, Indiana and Ohio State are level, while Georgia trades at 7c and LSU at 6c further down the board.
The takeaway is discipline. Indiana's 9c does not offer the gap between price and model that defines a value entry. The Hoosiers screen as correctly respected rather than underpriced, and traders hunting an edge on the title board find better separation elsewhere. Kalshi (promo code FADE) is the listed venue for the contract at that price.
Where the model stands on Indiana
Net view: Indiana is a real contender the model rates at 6.8%, but the 9c price has already priced in that recognition and then some. The value case is absent at current levels; the contract is fair-to-rich rather than a discount.
A conference-title angle would sharpen this further, but no de-vigged Big Ten market sits in the consensus set here, so the title board is the cleanest available read. On that board, the model's message is to respect Indiana without chasing it, and to watch for a pullback toward the 6.8% fair value before the price becomes interesting.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and this is analysis rather than financial advice. The figures reflect the market as of the latest read and will move with news and liquidity.
