Georgia enters the 2026 national title market with a model fair value of 9.1% and a cheapest posted contract of 10c on Kalshi. That combination places Georgia fifth on the consensus board and, notably, a touch rich to model: the price sits about a point above where fair value lands.
Where does Georgia rank on the 2026 title board?
The top of the board is tightly bunched. Notre Dame leads at 11.2% fair value, Ohio State follows at 11.1%, Oregon holds 10.3% and Texas sits at 9.6%. Georgia's 9.1% rounds out the top five, with Indiana next at 8.5%.
The spread from first to fifth is roughly two points of implied probability, which is thin. In a field this compressed, small moves in power ratings or early-season results can reshuffle the order quickly. Georgia's position is stable rather than commanding: firmly in the contender tier, but not the market's clear favorite.
Is Georgia's price cheap or rich versus the model?
The cheapest Georgia title contract trades at 10c on Kalshi against a model fair value of 9.1%. That is a price sitting modestly above fair value, so the overlay a value trader looks for is not there. The contract reads close to efficient, with a slight lean to the sell side.
This is a different profile from the board's value spots, where posted prices dip beneath model fair value. Georgia is priced like a known quantity: a perennial contender the market is comfortable holding near consensus. Traders comparing venues can note that Kalshi carries the best Georgia line among the tracked exchanges. New Kalshi accounts using code FADE can trade $25 and get up to $500.
How does Georgia stack up in the SEC?
Within the SEC, Georgia is the second-strongest name on the model board at 9.1%, trailing only Texas at 9.6%. The two are the conference's only teams above 5% fair value, a clear gap to the next tier.
Below them, LSU sits at 4.7%, with Texas Tech and Texas A&M at 2.8%, Alabama at 2.5% and Oklahoma at 2.1%. That structure frames Georgia as one of two SEC teams the model treats as genuine national-title equity, rather than a longer-priced flyer.
The numbers behind Georgia's outlook
The chart below places Georgia's fair value against the rest of the top of the board. The takeaway is proximity: Georgia is a fraction of a point from the fourth-place Texas line and roughly two points off the leader.
Where the model stands on Georgia
The model's read is straightforward: Georgia is a top-five title contender whose market price has caught up to its fair value. At 10c against 9.1%, there is no meaningful discount, and the contract trades among names sitting at or slightly above model fair value.
That does not make Georgia a fade outright; it makes it fairly priced. Value hunters will find more overlay elsewhere on the board, while traders who want exposure to a proven contender can do so at close to model at the best posted line. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. The point is calibration: Georgia's 9.1% fair value is the anchor, and 10c is the market's answer sitting just on top of it.
