Conference-title value concentrates in the Big Ten's top tier and thins out fast across the SEC. Ohio State (11.5% fair value) and Oregon (9.9%) hand the Big Ten two of the four highest marks on the national board, while the SEC leans on Texas (10.2%) and Georgia (8.8%) at the front of a longer, flatter queue. Miami (8.5%) stands alone atop the ACC read.
No standalone conference-title prices are published here, so the national-title board serves as the proxy. Because the model builds both markets off the same power ratings, relative title equity inside a league maps directly onto conference-title favoritism: the higher a team's national number, the shorter its path to its own conference crown.
Why does the Big Ten look top-heavy?
The Big Ten's equity sits in three names. Ohio State leads the entire board at 11.5% fair value, Oregon follows at 9.9%, and Indiana rounds the trio at 8.5%. That is a concentrated distribution: two clear favorites and a live third, with daylight to the rest of the league.
For a conference-title market, concentration matters. A top-heavy field means fewer credible paths to the trophy, which pushes more implied probability onto the leaders. The national board frames Ohio State and Oregon as the two the model would price shortest to emerge from the Big Ten, with Indiana as the priced longer-shot rather than a co-favorite.
How does the SEC's board compare?
The SEC carries more names but less weight per name. Texas tops the conference read at 10.2% fair value and Georgia sits at 8.8%, yet the tier drops sharply from there: LSU at 4.8%, then a cluster of Alabama (2.3%), Texas A&M (2.2%) and Oklahoma (1.9%).
That spread is the story. Six SEC teams hold priced title equity, but the model splits it across a crowded field rather than banking it on one or two. The result is a deeper conference where no single favorite dominates the way Ohio State does the Big Ten, and where the tail (Alabama, Texas A&M, Oklahoma) trades as low-single-digit longshots on Polymarket at 2c each.
Where does the model see value?
Value follows price, not reputation. On the frontrunners, Kalshi owns the board: Ohio State best-prices at 13c against 11.5% fair value, Texas at 12c against 10.2%, and Oregon at 11c against 9.9%. Those are tight gaps, the price floor sitting a notch above the model's fair value, which is the norm for heavily traded favorites.
Miami is the cleanest single read on the ACC at 8.5% fair value and an 8c best price on Kalshi, the rare frontrunner whose cents sit level with its model number. In the SEC tail, LSU at 4.8% fair value and 6c on Polymarket shows the same over-fair floor smaller teams tend to carry.
How to read the venue split
The venue pattern is consistent with the rest of the board: Kalshi supplies the cheapest prices on the favorites, and Polymarket owns the tail. Traders comparing the two can use code FADE on Kalshi (trade $25, get up to $500) or TGSWC on Polymarket (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) when sizing where a contract is cheapest.
One caveat frames all of it. These are national-title figures standing in for conference races, and the model can be wrong. The board points to a Big Ten defined by two favorites and an SEC defined by depth, but prices move on liquidity and news, and fair value is an estimate, not a verdict.
