The model's clearest edge on the conference-title path sits with Florida and Indiana. Florida prices at 2c on Kalshi against a national title fair value of 10%, the widest gap on the board, and Indiana trades at 5c on Polymarket against a 6.2% fair value. Both contracts sit under the model's read of fair, which is where conference-level value tends to surface first.
Conference-title markets are thin and patchily quoted, so the national title board, de-vigged across Polymarket and Kalshi, is the cleanest available proxy for conference-level strength. The figures below are national title fair values and best prices; they frame which conference contenders the market is underpricing, not standalone conference odds.
Where does the model see the most value this season?
Value concentrates at the top and the middle of the board. Florida leads at 2c on Kalshi versus a 10% fair value, a divergence large enough that the contract carries the most model-implied discount of any team tracked. For a program the model rates as the most likely national champion, a 2c entry on Kalshi (promo code FADE) is the standout line.
Indiana is the second clear flag: 5c on Polymarket against a 6.2% fair value. That gap is smaller than Florida's in absolute terms but still points the same direction, with the cheapest venue sitting below the model. Georgia (5c versus 5.4%) and LSU (4c versus 4.2%) round out the modest-value group, each priced a touch under fair.
Big Ten: how the model reads the field
The Big Ten board splits into priced-to-fair at the top and value in the middle. Ohio State carries a 9.4% fair value and a best price of 9c on Kalshi, essentially in line with the model. Oregon sits at 8.8% fair against a 9c best price on Polymarket, leaving it marginally rich rather than cheap.
The conference's value, by the model, runs through Indiana at 5c versus 6.2%. With the top of the Big Ten priced close to fair, the discount sits one rung down, where the market has been slower to mark up a contender the model already rates inside the top eight.
SEC: Florida leads, the rest hug the board
Florida is the SEC's headline value at 2c against a 10% fair value. Behind it, the conference largely trades at or near model. Texas posts a 9.1% fair value and a 9c best price on Polymarket, a fair line, while Alabama (3c versus 3.2%) is priced almost exactly to the model.
The one contract to flag in the other direction is Texas A&M: 4c best price against a 3.3% fair value, a rich line rather than a discount. Georgia (5c versus 5.4%) and LSU (4c versus 4.2%) offer slim edges, leaving Florida as the only SEC name with a wide margin between price and fair value.
The board at a glance
Fair value across the top of the national title board clusters tightly, with five teams inside a 1.2-point range before the field steps down. That compression is why best-price divergence, not raw fair value, drives where the model sees value.
Why the national board stands in for conference markets
Conference-title contracts trade in less liquid corners than the national title market, so the consensus fair value built from Polymarket and Kalshi prices is the more reliable signal. Best price is simply the cheapest venue to enter each team: Kalshi (promo code FADE) for Florida, Ohio State, Miami and Alabama, and Polymarket (promo code TGSWC) for Notre Dame, Texas, Oregon, Indiana, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M.
One structural caveat shapes the read: Notre Dame carries a 9.7% national title fair value but no conference-title path as an Independent, and at 11c on Polymarket it trades above fair. For the teams that do play for a conference crown, the cheapest contracts relative to model are Florida and Indiana. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice; the chart below shows where the cheapest entries currently sit.
