Redshirt
Analysis

Auburn 2026 Futures: Off the CFB Title Board

Auburn's 2026 title futures do not price on the national board, leaving the model below the SEC's priced tier led by Texas, Georgia and LSU. Here is where value sits.

By The Model Desk · 2026-07-17
Analysis
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Key takeaways
  • Auburn does not appear among the 12 priced national title contracts, placing it off the model's visible board for 2026.
  • The lowest priced title team on the board is Alabama at 2.2% fair value and 2c best price on Polymarket.
  • The SEC's priced tier is led by Texas at 9.6%, with Georgia and LSU tied at 5.6% fair value.
  • Texas A&M sits at 3.2% and Oklahoma at 2.3%, marking the SEC price floor Auburn would need to clear.
  • No cited price implies Auburn's implied title probability trails every SEC team currently on the board.

Auburn does not carry a national title price for 2026. The team sits off the model's visible board, which runs 12 contracts deep and bottoms out at Alabama's 2.2% fair value. With no cited price, Auburn's implied title probability trails every SEC program that the market has bothered to quote, from Texas at 9.6% down to Alabama at the floor.

Where does Auburn sit on the 2026 title board?

Below it. The priced national title board tops out at Notre Dame (12%), Ohio State (11.3%) and Oregon (11.1%), and the tail runs through Oklahoma (2.3%) and Alabama (2.2%). Auburn appears in neither the head nor the tail, which means the market is not yet assigning it a tradeable national title probability.

That is an information signal, not a verdict on the roster. Off-board status simply reflects that liquidity and consensus fair value have not converged on a number the venues will list. Until that changes, there is no Auburn contract to model against on the title market.

The practical read: any Auburn title case has to argue past the SEC teams already priced ahead of it, starting with the price floor set by Oklahoma and Alabama.

How is the SEC title market priced right now?

Six SEC programs carry national title fair values on the board. Texas leads at 9.6%, then Georgia and LSU tied at 5.6%, Texas A&M at 3.2%, Oklahoma at 2.3% and Alabama at 2.2%. That spread is the ladder Auburn would need to climb to earn a quote.

The gap from the top of the SEC group to its floor is roughly seven and a half points of implied probability, so the conference is far from top-heavy at the tail. An unpriced team is, by definition, valued beneath the 2.2% floor.

SEC national title fair value
Texas9.6%
Georgia5.6%
LSU5.6%
Texas A&M3.2%
Oklahoma2.3%
Alabama2.2%

What would it take for Auburn to earn a price?

Clearing the SEC floor. Oklahoma at 2.3% and Alabama at 2.2% mark the lowest priced rungs; a contract for Auburn would first have to be quoted somewhere near that band before the model has a number to fade or back.

Movement on the board is driven by liquidity and news, not sentiment. A team crosses from off-board to priced when order flow builds enough consensus for a venue to list a stable market. Absent that, the honest position is that Auburn has no fair value to cite, and no cited edge either.

The disciplined approach is to treat the absence as data: the market has not found a reason to price Auburn among its title contenders, and the model does not manufacture one.

Where does value sit for SEC contracts now?

Among priced SEC teams, the cheapest venue is consistent: the best listed prices sit on Polymarket. Texas trades at 9c against a 9.6% fair value, Georgia at 5c against 5.6%, LSU at 6c against 5.6%, and Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Alabama at 3c, 2c and 2c respectively.

Georgia stands out as the one priced modestly under fair value on the board (5c versus 5.6%), while LSU's 6c sits a shade above its 5.6% model mark. Those are small gaps, and longshot contracts carry proportionally more vig, so the tail of the board rewards patience over conviction.

For Auburn specifically, there is nothing to trade until a price exists. New Polymarket accounts can use code TGSWC, but the model's stance on Auburn's title market is simple: no board, no number, no edge.

SEC title best price on Polymarket
Texas9c
LSU6c
Georgia5c
Texas A&M3c
Oklahoma2c
Alabama2c
TeamsAuburnTexasGeorgiaLSUAlabamaTexas A&M
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Frequently asked questions

What are Auburn's 2026 national title odds?

Auburn does not appear among the 12 priced national title contracts on the board, so no fair value or market price is available. That places Auburn below every SEC team that is currently priced.

Which SEC team has the best title price on the board?

Texas leads the priced SEC group at 9.6% fair value, available at 9c on Polymarket. Georgia and LSU follow, both at 5.6% fair value.

How low does the priced title board go?

The board's floor is Alabama at 2.2% fair value and a 2c best price on Polymarket, just under Oklahoma at 2.3%. Auburn sits below even that tier since it does not price.

Where can these SEC title contracts be traded cheapest?

The best listed prices for the priced SEC teams sit on Polymarket, for example Texas at 9c and Georgia at 5c. Polymarket promo code TGSWC applies for new accounts.

About the author
The Model Desk

The Redshirt Analytics modeling team prices every college football futures contract and tracks the gaps between fair value and live market prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX.