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Matchup preview

Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss visit Louisiana Tech in Week 11. The model favors Louisiana Tech by 14. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
20%
80%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#128SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#99
#98FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#92
1275EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1431
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Southern MissLouisiana Techsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Southern Miss lead 5-4
20142025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
30-20
Louisiana Tech
at Louisiana Tech
2021
35-19
Southern Miss
at Louisiana Tech
2020
31-30
Louisiana Tech
at Southern Miss
2019
45-30
Louisiana Tech
at Louisiana Tech
2018
21-20
Southern Miss
at Southern Miss
2017
34-27
Southern Miss
at Louisiana Tech
2016
39-24
Southern Miss
at Southern Miss
2015
58-24
Southern Miss
at Louisiana Tech
2014
31-20
Louisiana Tech
at Southern Miss
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 14, 2026 at Louisiana Tech.

Who is favored?

The model projects Louisiana Tech by 14 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Southern Miss lead 5-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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