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Matchup preview

Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State

Western Kentucky visit New Mexico State in Week 5. The model favors New Mexico State by 3.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
42%
58%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Western Kentucky67%+60 ptsvsNew Mexico State33%-60 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Western Kentucky favoredNew Mexico State favoredSep 18Sep 23

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Western Kentucky's win price; New Mexico State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Western Kentucky is favored, below it New Mexico State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#122SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#119
#94FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#126
1408EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1172
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Western KentuckyNew Mexico Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Western Kentucky lead 2-1
Western Kentucky have won the last 2
20232025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
35-16
Western Kentucky
at Western Kentucky
2024
41-28
Western Kentucky
at New Mexico State
2023
38-29
New Mexico State
at Western Kentucky
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Western Kentucky and New Mexico State play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 2, 2026 at New Mexico State.

Who is favored?

The model projects New Mexico State by 3.2 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Western Kentucky lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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