Western Kentucky vs Georgia
Western Kentucky visit Georgia in Week 2. The model favors Georgia by 47.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The SP+ ratings frame this as a mismatch with little ambiguity: Georgia sits second at 28.7 while Western Kentucky ranks 114th at -13.1, a spread of nearly 42 points. The model prices Georgia at a 100% win probability and projects the margin at 44.2, three points clear of the market number of Georgia -41.2. That is the lone crack of daylight between the two: the model reads Georgia slightly larger than the consensus of two books, which implies a 99% Georgia win probability and pairs the spread with a total of 55.5.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Georgia grades fourth on offense and third on defense; Western Kentucky checks in at 96th on offense and 121st on defense, leaving no side of the ball to lean on. Season simulations track the same divide: Georgia projects to 9.3 wins with a 71.2% Playoff chance and 10.8% title equity, against a market title price of 7.7%. Western Kentucky projects to 4.9 wins, 0.1% to reach the Playoff and 0% to win it.
Week 1 results reinforce rather than complicate the read. Georgia opened with a 63-3 win over Tennessee State, while Western Kentucky lost at Nevada 14-49. The model edge over the market on margin is the only number worth watching here.
Numbers point one way: Georgia by 44.2 in the model versus 41.2 at the market, with every rating and sim agreeing.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Western Kentucky's win price; Georgia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Western Kentucky is favored, below it Georgia is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Western Kentucky vs Georgia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Kentucky vs Georgia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Western Kentucky and Georgia play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Georgia.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia by 47.1 (100% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →