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Matchup preview

West Virginia vs Iowa State

West Virginia visit Iowa State in Week 5. The model favors Iowa State by 4.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
39%
61%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
West Virginia55%-10 ptsvsIowa State45%+10 pts
0%25%50%75%100%West Virginia favoredIowa State favoredSep 21Sep 22Sep 23

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as West Virginia's win price; Iowa State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line West Virginia is favored, below it Iowa State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#61SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#52
#84FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#35
1291EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1629
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
West VirginiaIowa Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 5-5
Iowa State have won the last 2
20142024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
28-16
Iowa State
at West Virginia
2022
31-14
Iowa State
at Iowa State
2021
38-31
West Virginia
at West Virginia
2020
42-6
Iowa State
at Iowa State
2019
38-14
Iowa State
at West Virginia
2018
30-14
Iowa State
at Iowa State
2017
20-16
West Virginia
at West Virginia
2016
49-19
West Virginia
at Iowa State
2015
30-6
West Virginia
at West Virginia
2014
37-24
West Virginia
at Iowa State
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the West Virginia vs Iowa State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the West Virginia vs Iowa State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do West Virginia and Iowa State play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Iowa State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Iowa State by 4.4 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 5-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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