Washington State vs Utah State
Washington State visit Utah State in Week 6. The model favors Utah State by 7.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ cannot separate these teams: identical -9.3 ratings, ranked 106 and 105, with the model giving Utah State a 56% edge and a projected 2.4-point margin. The market leans harder on the home side. The consensus line sits at Utah State -5.2 with a 44.3 total, implying 62%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Utah State at -188 (65%) against Washington State +184 (35%). That is a clear gap between a near coin-flip model and a market pricing Utah State as a solid favorite.
The unit ranks explain the low total: both offenses sit at the bottom (Washington State #120, Utah State #121), with defenses close behind at #79 and #78. Series history cuts the other way, as Washington State leads 2-1 and took the last meeting in 2025 by 34-21.
Form offers little to trust on either side. Both enter 1-4, each with a single win against lesser opposition (Washington State 48-7 over Duquesne, Utah State 21-10 over Troy). Season simulations project 3.3 wins for Washington State and 3.5 for Utah State, neither with any path to the Playoff or title.
A pick-em on the model that the market and exchange have turned into a Utah State favorite near 62 to 65%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Washington State vs Utah State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Washington State vs Utah State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Washington State and Utah State play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Utah State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Utah State by 7.3 (67% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Washington State lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →