Washington State vs Oregon State
Washington State visit Oregon State in Week 7. The model favors Oregon State by 23.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Oregon State rates 7.1 (52nd) against Washington State at -11.1 (111th), an 18.2-point ratings gap that produces a projected Oregon State margin of 20.6. The market sits a notch short of that, pricing Oregon State -17.5 with a 52.5 total. Win probabilities tell the same story from three angles: the model at 89 percent, the consensus line at 86 percent, and the ProphetX exchange at 89 percent on Oregon State -830. The three-point spread between model margin and market line is the only real disagreement on the board.
The unit ranks explain the lean. Oregon State's offense (#39) towers over a Washington State defense ranked #69, while the Washington State offense (#127) faces an Oregon State defense at #52. Season form reinforces it: Oregon State has posted 52, 33, 56 and 66 points across four wins, whereas Washington State sits at 2.7 projected wins with single scores of 10, 7, 6 and 16 in five losses.
The series cuts the other way, Washington State leading 3-10, and the 2025 meeting went 10-7 to Oregon State, a reminder these games can compress. That low-scoring history is the one data point arguing against the 52.5 total and the 20.6 projected margin.
Model, market and exchange all land near 86-89 percent on Oregon State, with the only gap a 3-point spread between the 20.6 projection and the -17.5 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Washington State's win price; Oregon State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Washington State is favored, below it Oregon State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Washington State vs Oregon State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Washington State vs Oregon State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Washington State and Oregon State play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Oregon State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oregon State by 23.1 (92% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Washington State lead 10-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →