UTSA vs Rice
UTSA visit Rice in Week 5. The model favors UTSA by 15.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market are effectively aligned here. SP+ separates the sides by 14.1 points of rating (UTSA -1, rank 73; Rice -15.1, rank 119) and projects UTSA by 11.7. The consensus line across two books lands almost on top of that at Rice +11.8, and both the model and the market imply the same split: UTSA 76 percent, Rice 24 percent. The lone divergence is the ProphetX exchange, where UTSA sits at -430 (81 percent) and Rice at +385 (21 percent), pricing the road side about five points of probability heavier than either the model or the consensus line.
The unit ranks explain the gap: UTSA's offense (#44) towers over Rice's defense (#116), while Rice's offense (#119) is the weakest number on the board against a UTSA defense ranked #99. Season projections reinforce the tier split, 7.7 wins for UTSA against 3.6 for Rice, with neither carrying Playoff equity.
Recent form tracks the ratings. UTSA is 3-1, with wins over Colorado State (59-45) and Texas State (31-26) framed by a 6-30 loss at Texas. Rice is 1-3, its only win coming against Houston Christian (31-3) alongside losses to Western Michigan (21-28) and Fresno State (24-38). The series favors UTSA 2-1, and the last meeting in 2025 was a 61-13 rout, the kind of result that makes the total of 56.3 read as live.
Model, consensus line and exchange all point one way: UTSA on the road, with only the exchange pricing it steeper.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UTSA vs Rice game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UTSA vs Rice market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UTSA and Rice play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Rice.
Who is favored?
The model projects UTSA by 15.3 (82% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
UTSA lead 9-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →