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Matchup preview

Utah State vs Boise State

Utah State visit Boise State in Week 5. The model favors Boise State by 18.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
13%
87%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Utah State8%+1 ptsvsBoise State92%-1 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Utah State favoredBoise State favoredSep 20Sep 21

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Utah State's win price; Boise State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Utah State is favored, below it Boise State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#106SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#47
#80FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#55
1446EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1594
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Utah StateBoise Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Boise State lead 11-1
Boise State have won the last 10
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
25-24
Boise State
at Utah State
2024
62-30
Boise State
at Boise State
2023
45-10
Boise State
at Utah State
2022
42-23
Boise State
at Boise State
2021
27-3
Boise State
at Utah State
2020
42-13
Boise State
at Boise State
2019
56-21
Boise State
at Utah State
2018
33-24
Boise State
at Boise State
2017
41-14
Boise State
at Utah State
2016
21-10
Boise State
at Boise State
2015
52-26
Utah State
at Utah State
2014
50-19
Boise State
at Boise State
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Utah State vs Boise State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Utah State vs Boise State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Utah State and Boise State play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Boise State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Boise State by 18.6 (87% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Boise State lead 11-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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