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Matchup preview

UL Monroe vs South Alabama

UL Monroe visit South Alabama in Week 5. The model favors South Alabama by 19.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
12%
88%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
USA -13.2
Total (O/U)
57
Favorite
USA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#137SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#112
#131FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#105
1016EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1336
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
UL MonroeSouth Alabamasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
South Alabama lead 6-4
South Alabama have won the last 4
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
26-14
South Alabama
at UL Monroe
2024
46-17
South Alabama
at South Alabama
2023
55-7
South Alabama
at UL Monroe
2022
41-34
South Alabama
at South Alabama
2021
41-31
UL Monroe
at UL Monroe
2020
38-14
South Alabama
at South Alabama
2019
30-17
UL Monroe
at UL Monroe
2018
38-10
UL Monroe
at South Alabama
2017
33-23
South Alabama
at South Alabama
2016
42-35
UL Monroe
at UL Monroe
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the UL Monroe vs South Alabama game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UL Monroe vs South Alabama market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do UL Monroe and South Alabama play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at South Alabama.

Who is favored?

The model projects South Alabama by 19.7 (88% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

South Alabama lead 6-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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