UConn vs Temple
UConn visit Temple in Week 6. The model favors UConn by 6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market split hard on this one. SP+ rates UConn at -3.7 (85th) against Temple's -6.1 (92nd), a 2.4-point edge to the visitor that nets out to a coin flip: 50% each way and a projected margin of zero. The consensus line across two books disagrees, posting Temple -3.7 and an implied 59% to 41% home edge. That is a full field-goal swing between a model that sees the better overall rating on UConn's side and a market pricing Temple as the clear favorite.
The unit ranks explain the friction. Temple's offense (67th) outranks UConn's (79th), but its defense sits 112th against UConn's 93rd, the widest single gap on the board and a reason the total is set at 54.5. Season form is muddy: UConn is 2-3 with a 41-42 loss to Syracuse and a 48-20 win at Southern Miss, while Temple is 2-3 with a 48-49 loss at Toledo and a one-score win at South Florida. Projected win totals are nearly level at 5.5 and 5.8, and neither carries meaningful Playoff equity.
Series history favors Temple 5-2, though UConn took the last meeting 29-20 in 2024. The pricing question is whether Temple's home edge justifies three-plus points over a model that calls it even.
The model calls it a toss-up while the market prices Temple -3.7, leaving a field-goal gap on a game SP+ sees dead even.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UConn's win price; Temple's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UConn is favored, below it Temple is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UConn vs Temple game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UConn vs Temple market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UConn and Temple play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Temple.
Who is favored?
The model projects UConn by 6 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Temple lead 5-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →