Tulsa vs Rice
Tulsa visit Rice in Week 7. The model favors Tulsa by 9.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these American teams by 8.3 points, rating Tulsa at -5.1 (93rd) against Rice at -13.4 (120th), and projects Tulsa by 5.9. The market is tighter: Rice +4.3 with a 46.5 total, implying 60% for Tulsa and 40% for Rice, versus the model's 64/36 split. The ProphetX exchange prices Tulsa at -176 (64%) and Rice at +166 (38%), landing on the model rather than the consensus line, so the disagreement is a point and a half of margin and roughly four points of win probability in Tulsa's favor.
The unit ranks reinforce the gap. Tulsa grades 95th on offense and 88th on defense, while Rice sits 122nd and 99th, trailing on both sides. Form matches the ratings: Tulsa is 3-3 with wins over Oklahoma State (24-10), Sam Houston (23-17) and East Texas A&M (42-0), plus a one-point loss to North Texas (44-45). Rice is 1-5, its only win against Houston Christian (31-3), with five straight losses including 14-16 to UTSA and 12-28 at East Carolina.
Series history favors Rice 1-0, but the lone meeting was 2023, a 42-10 result that predates this form. Season simulations project 6.3 wins for Tulsa against 3.1 for Rice, with neither given Playoff or title equity. The model, the exchange and the production profile all point the same direction; the consensus line is the lone soft spot.
Model, exchange and form all back Tulsa near 64%, while the consensus line shades a touch friendlier to Rice.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulsa's win price; Rice's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulsa is favored, below it Rice is, and each segment takes the favored team's color. Polymarket publishes a daily close, drawn as a line. As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulsa vs Rice game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulsa vs Rice market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulsa and Rice play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Rice.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tulsa by 9.6 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Rice lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →