Tulsa vs Navy
Tulsa visit Navy in Week 6. The model favors Navy by 3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit almost on top of each other. SP+ separates these teams by three-tenths of a point, Tulsa at -3.4 (rank 83) against Navy at -3.7 (rank 86), and still lands on Navy by 2.1 with a 55% win probability. The consensus line of Navy -2.5 and the market-implied 56% echo that read, as does the ProphetX exchange, where Navy -125 prices in 56% and Tulsa +120 sits at 45%. There is no disagreement to exploit here: every source frames a near coin flip tilting marginally to the home side, against a total of 48.8.
The unit splits cut in opposite directions. Navy's offense ranks #78 to Tulsa's #101, but Navy's defense is #95 against Tulsa's #60, so the projected margin leans on offense carrying a weak stop unit. Season form complicates the lean: Tulsa is 3-2 with wins over Oklahoma State (24-10) and Sam Houston (23-17) but a 6-34 loss at Arkansas and a 44-45 loss to North Texas. Navy is 1-3, beating Towson 42-15 then dropping three straight, 38-30 at FAU, 24-20 at UAB and 14-9 at Air Force.
Series history is the one lopsided input: Navy leads 8-1 and took the 2025 meeting 42-23. Longer-run simulations project Tulsa at 6.9 wins and Navy at 4.9, neither with a Playoff path worth noting.
A true pick-em: model and market both shade Navy by roughly two, but Tulsa's record and defensive edge undercut the home lean.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulsa's win price; Navy's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulsa is favored, below it Navy is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulsa vs Navy game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulsa vs Navy market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulsa and Navy play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Navy.
Who is favored?
The model projects Navy by 3 (57% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Navy lead 8-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →