Tulane vs Army
Tulane visit Army in Week 6. The model favors Army by 11.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a clearer edge than the market does. The model rates Army -0.8 (72nd) against Tulane at -7.3 (97th), a 6.5-point ratings gap that projects to Army by 8.9 and a 71 percent win probability. The consensus line is far softer at Army -3 with a 48.5 total, implying just 57 percent, and the ProphetX exchange splits the difference at Army -154 (61 percent) against Tulane +146 (41 percent). Every source leans Army, but the model carries roughly 10 to 14 points more conviction than the traded price.
The unit ranks explain the caution. Army's offense (75th) and defense (77th) hold modest edges over Tulane's offense (109th) and defense (80th), consistent with a small projected margin rather than a blowout. Series history cuts the other way: Tulane leads 5-1 and took the 2025 meeting 24-17, a counterweight the ratings do not capture.
Both sides sit 2-2. Tulane fell at Duke 3-17 and at Kansas State 20-31 while edging South Alabama 28-24 and Southern Miss 24-21, a profile of narrow wins and lopsided road losses. Army blew out Bryant 59-3 but dropped two one-score games, 24-28 to South Florida and 29-31 at Louisiana Tech, with a 21-17 win at Temple between. Full-season sims give Army 6.5 projected wins to Tulane's 5.8, a gap as thin as this line.
The model backs Army by 8.9 and 71 percent, but a -3 line, even units and Tulane's 5-1 series lead argue for a coin-flip finish.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulane's win price; Army's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulane is favored, below it Army is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulane vs Army game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulane vs Army market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulane and Army play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Army.
Who is favored?
The model projects Army by 11.6 (76% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Tulane lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →